Hyderabad, Telangana — November 12, 2025: Absolute Politico Pvt. Ltd., a leading political consulting and strategy firm, has released its exit poll findings for the 2025 Bihar Assembly Elections. The survey indicates a tight contest between major alliances, with the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) projected to win between 98 and 112 seats in the 243-member assembly. The majority mark stands at 122, placing the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) slightly ahead in the race to form the next government.
The analysis reveals that Bihar’s electoral dynamics continue to be driven more by caste equations than by issues or ideology. Over the past few election cycles, the state has consistently witnessed a close contest, with the Janata Dal (United) playing the role of kingmaker despite the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) or the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) often securing higher seat counts within their respective alliances. This enduring pattern underscores the complexity of Bihar’s voter behavior and the delicate balance of social coalitions that define its politics.
According to the findings, the NDA’s decision to share seats in an equal ratio and to project Nitish Kumar as the Chief Ministerial candidate has proven strategically effective. While the BJP had ambitions to claim the top post, the alliance’s stability hinged on Nitish’s leadership, which brought certainty in key JDU strongholds. This decision is likely to consolidate the NDA’s advantage in crucial constituencies across the state.
On the other hand, the Mahagathbandhan (MGB), led by RJD and supported by the Indian National Congress (INC), faces challenges in countering the NDA’s developmental narrative. Tejashwi Yadav, the RJD’s young leader, continues to grapple with the high expectations set by his father, Lalu Prasad Yadav, whose political legacy remains unmatched in the state. The Congress, meanwhile, remains a weaker partner, unable to provide significant support to the RJD in the absence of the JDU’s backing — as observed during the 2022 political developments.
The report also highlights the growing presence of political strategist Prashant Kishore, whose efforts indicate a long-term plan to reshape Bihar’s political future. His emerging role and grassroots initiatives are expected to influence future elections, even if immediate results are limited in this cycle.
Furthermore, Nitish Kumar’s decisive role in the formation of the current NDA government at the Union level has enhanced his image as a stable and experienced leader. This development could enable the JDU to consolidate its voter base more effectively than in previous elections, thereby strengthening the NDA’s overall position in Bihar.
Speaking about the findings, K. Sreepad Sai Nandan, Director and Co-Founder of Absolute Politico, noted that “Bihar’s political narrative continues to evolve around leadership credibility and alliance arithmetic. The NDA’s internal coherence gives it a distinct edge, but the state’s social fabric ensures that competition remains intense.”
Adding to this, Bharat Bhushan Rallapalli, Chief Political Strategist at Absolute Politico, stated, “Our data-driven analysis shows that while the MGB retains traditional support in key districts, its inability to project a strong developmental alternative and the NDA’s strong ‘jungle raj’ narrative limits its growth potential against the NDA’s performance-based messaging.”
Absolute Politico Pvt. Ltd. is an India-based political consulting firm specializing in election analytics, campaign design, and voter behavior research. With experience across multiple state and national elections, the firm provides strategic insights to political organizations, enabling them to design impactful and evidence-based campaigns.
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