The date to Telangana Assembly polls is getting closer. It is now just 4 days away. With just two days left for the campaigning, all the parties are putting their best foot forward and trying to influence people. It is going to be a four-cornered contest in Telangana this time. The TRS, Grand Alliance, AIMIM and BJP are fighting the elections.
While TRS and Grand Alliance are the main contestants, AIMIM and BJP have little presence in Telangana. A couple of years ago BJP felt it had space in the political scenario of Telangana and can grow to be the next alternative party. But this was when Modi’s popularity was at an all-time high and Congress was relegated to almost zero at the national level. From then to now things have changed and BJP could not build upon that momentum due to the downfall of Modi’s image due to demonetisation and GST and resurrection of Congress.
Given this scenario, in the upcoming polls in Telangana, BJP is predicted to win five to ten seats. If BJP wins ten seats it is like doubling its past performance of five seats. It will not only double its performance but will also most likely create a deadlock in the formation of the next Telangana government.
Per poll pundits and the public pulse, looks like TRS is going to end up its tally around fifty seats. AIMIM is slated to win seven seats. With BJP’s tally of five to ten seats, it is going to be 62-67 seats among these three parties. 62 is above the simple majority in the Telangana Assembly. If these three parties put together can reach the 60 mark, the Grand Alliance cannot form the government. Reason being BJP will not support Grand Alliance that has Congress as a partner.
At the same time, BJP will not be able to support TRS as well, because it has AIMIM in the mix. If TRS cannot form the government with the support of either of the parties, It is going to be a deadlock situation in Telangana.
This whole theory is valid only when no single party gets full majority in the election. It looks like the trend is pointing towards such a post-poll scenario. Let’s wait and watch if it is going to be a president rule in Telangana.